2020 GOP Swing District Study

In the last two weeks, No Labels/HarrisX has surveyed voters in 15 of the most competitive swing districts across America, which are currently represented by both Democrats and Republicans in Congress. We wanted to get a sense for how voters really feel about the infrastructure negotiations happening in Washington and what they expect from their elected officials. The results were surprising and more illuminating than what’s been reported in many national polls.

Our most recent data—gathered in the first week of June—is from 5 Republican swing districts, where we found:

  1. Across all districts, over 7 in 10 voters believe America’s infrastructure is in urgent need of new investments.
  2. Spending size, bipartisanship, and compromise matters to voters in these districts:
    1. Voters want a clean infrastructure bill of up to $1 trillion dollars that focuses on physical infrastructure; majorities of voters in these districts believe climate change / clean energy and social welfare investments should be addressed in separate bills. 
    1. Majorities want bipartisan infrastructure and social spending bill that are subject to compromise.
    2. Voters will not reward representatives who support $4 trillion dollars in new spending that raises taxes and expands the budget deficit
    3. Voters want their representatives to push for a $1 trillion infrastructure plan that doesn’t increase taxes.
    4. However, if a negotiated $1-1.5 trillion infrastructure bill emerges with compromises required from both sides, voters in 4 of 5 districts are slightly more likely to vote for a representative who pushes to get a infrastructure bill pushed rather than holding (this is understanding their GOP representatives would have to accept small concessions on taxes and Democrats have made large concessions on social spending).

The findings in the Republican survey match the results of last week's No Labels/HarrisX poll of the 10 most competitive swing districts held by Democrats. Taken together, the data from these 15 Congressional districts in many ways reveals more meaningful information than from the more typical national polls. These voters will help determine who controls the House of Representatives after the 2022 midterms. 

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