KEY FINDINGS SUMMARY: NO LABELS NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY STUDY

Release September 12, 2019

Key findings summary: no labels new hampshire primary study

STUDY METHODOLOGY

The No Labels New Hampshire poll was conducted online within the state of New Hampshire from September 6-11, 2019 among 595 New Hampshire Democratic and Independent likely voters by HarrisX. The survey explores the opinions of likely Democratic and Independent primary voters on what is necessary to solve problems in today’s polarized political climate. It also assesses their candidate preferences as the New Hampshire Democratic Primary approaches.

The sample of 595 likely voters is comprised of those respondents who identified as Democratic or Independent registered voters and who selected very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary election. The sample of likely voters is filtered from a sample of 1,003 New Hampshire registered voters, who were weighted for gender, age, congressional district, race/ethnicity, education, and political party where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

The sampling margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The sampling margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

For questions on the survey, please contact: stephanie@nolabels.org

KEY FINDINGS (AMONG DEMOCRATIC AND INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS)

Independents are nearly as energized as Democrats to participate in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary.

  • Among registered voters, 95% of Democrats and 77% of Independents say they are likely or very likely to vote in the 2020 New Hampshire primary.

The Democratic Primary race in New Hampshire is fluid.

  • Joe Biden (22%) and Bernie Sanders (21%) are tied at the top, with Elizabeth Warren (15%) coming in third. These are the only three candidates with double digit support.
  • 14% of Democratic and Independent likely voters are unsure of which candidate they prefer.
  • Three-fourths of likely voters (76%) say they might change their mind before the day of the Primary.
  • Elizabeth Warren is the top second choice for likely voters (16%), followed by Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders at 12% each.
  • Over half of likely voters (54%) find the field of Democratic candidates underwhelming.


Likely voters believe there is too much fighting in politics today and would like to see politicians and leaders who seek compromise in order to find solutions.

  • 97% agree that we need a government that draws the best people and ideas from both parties.
  • 96% of likely voters agree that politics has become too much about fighting and not enough about finding solutions.
  • 86% of likely voters agree that bipartisan compromise is better than single party control of the government and 91% say it’s better than gridlock.
  • 87% prefer politicians who compromise and get things done rather than standing on principle and not acting.

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE PREFERENCES (AMONG DEMOCRATIC AND INDEPENDENT LIKELY VOTERS)

Name                               First Choice           Second Choice
Joe Biden                                  22%                             12%
Bernie Sanders                       21%                             12%
Elizabeth Warren                  15%                             16%
Tulsi Gabbard                           6%                              6%
Kamala Harris                         5%                              9%
Pete Buttigieg                           5%                              5%
Cory Booker                             3%                              3%
Andrew Yang                           2%                              4%
Tom Steyer                               2%                              3%
Beto O’Rourke                         1%                              2%
Amy Klobuchar                       1%                              2%
John Delaney                           1%                              1%
Bill de Blasio                            1%                              1%
Marianne Williamson         1%                              1%
Michael Bennet                      0%                              1%
Tim Ryan                                  0%                              1%
Joe Sestak                                0%                              0%
Steve Bullock                          0%                              0%
Julian Castro                          0%                              1%
Wayne Messam                     0%                              0%
Unsure                                    14%                            22%

LIKELY PRIMARY VOTER FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Name                               Favorable                               Unfavorable                               No Opinion                               Never heard of
Donald Trump                   17%                                            82%                                               1%                                                     1%
Joe Biden                            66%                                            27%                                               6%                                                     1%
Democratic Party            64%                                            32%                                               3%                                                     0%
Republican Party.            17%                                            79%                                               3%                                                      1%                                              

LIKELY PRIMARY VOTER APPROVAL RATINGS

Name                               Approve                               Disapprove
Donald Trump                     19%                                           81%
Chris Sununu                       57%                                          43%
Jeanne Shaheen                 79%                                           21%
Maggie Hassan                   80%                                          20%
Democratic Party               61%                                           39%
Republican Party               21%                                            79%