Throughout U.S. history, midterm elections have tended to deliver big losses to the president’s party and big wins to the party in opposition -- and that looks to be the case for tomorrow’s midterms. Fivethirtyeight currently gives Republicans an 83% chance to win the House and a 55% chance to win the Senate.
But with 73% of Americans believing the country is currently on the wrong track, pollsters and pundits are increasingly talking of a red wave election for the Republican Party this election season where the GOP doesn’t just win – they win by a lot.
In 2010 and 1994, the last two midterms to produce a red wave, Republicans picked up 64 and 54 seats across both chambers of Congress, respectively.
Analysis for The Hill by Douglas E. Schoen suggests that Republicans are on pace to gain at least 30-35 seats in the House and 2-3 seats in the Senate, which would be enough to give them full control of Congress. Even those more modest gains would represent one of the 10 largest Republican gains in Congress in the last century.
