After Democrats enjoyed a late summer bump in polls, momentum in the run-up to the midterm elections has trended back in favor of Republicans. With control of the Senate, the House of Representatives, and governors’ mansions across the country on the line, here is where final polling stands as voting gets underway.
House of Representatives: Republicans are heavily favored to win the House, with FiveThirtyEight giving the GOP an 84% chance to win control. While Republican gains are expected to be substantial, it remains to be seen whether they’ll match the historic red waves of 1994 or 2010.
Senate: Control of the evenly split Senate is much more uncertain than the House. While Republicans have built a slight lead in odds, with FiveThirtyEight giving them a 59% chance of gaining a Senate majority, control in the Upper Chamber could come down to a few highly competitive races in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
Governor’s Mansions: Thirty-six states will elect their governors this election, and multiple states could flip from one party to another. Massachusetts and Maryland, both traditionally blue states, are expected to return to Democratic control as their popular Republican governors leave office. Meanwhile, Nevada and Wisconsin, where there has traditionally been more parity between Republicans and Democrats, could see their governors’ mansions pass from Democrats to Republicans. Election watchers should also follow the Oregon race, where Democrat Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan are leading neck-and-neck in a three-way race that could give the GOP control in Salem for the first time in 40 years.
