NL Polls 12,000 Voters in 33 Districts
New No Labels Poll of Voters in Key Congressional Districts That Will Decide Party Control in the 2022 Midterms Finds Overwhelming Support for Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal and Significant Concerns Over Added Social Spending
Defying Conventional Wisdom, Coast-to-Coast Survey Shows “50-50 Nation” Is a Myth in Key Areas, With More Than 2/3 of Voters Agreeing on Many Issues
By: Ryan Clancy and Amy Leveton
What do the American people want from Washington right now?
No Labels decided to find out. We just partnered with HarrisX to survey over 12,000 voters across 33 districts (20 of which are classified as “swing districts,” while 13 are represented by members whose votes on the Biden agenda are being closely watched). These are the districts that will almost certainly determine which party controls the House after the 2022 midterms.
The stakes are enormous, both for the country and the political prospects of swing district Republicans and Democrats.
On the table is:
- A $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan—supported by President Biden, and a bipartisan group of 23 senators and the 58-member House Problem Solvers Caucus—investing in roads, bridges, water, power grids, broadband and other physical assets.
- A $3.5 trillion spending plan—supported by only Democrats and no Republicans— investing in education, housing, child and elder care and other social initiatives, as well as clean energy and climate change provisions.
Although there has been plenty of polling on both packages, most are national samples focused on the public’s view of individual policies (e.g. “Are you for or against Washington providing two years of free community college?”) or funded by party or special interests with questions designed to deliver the answers they want.
No Labels is the first organization to survey this many individual districts to get a nuanced view of what voters really want their elected representatives to do, what tradeoffs they are willing to accept and what they are concerned about. Across these 33 districts—from every corner of America—a remarkably consistent picture emerged that looks nothing like the one that has been painted by much of the media and partisans on both sides. With more than two-thirds of voters agreeing on many issues, the 50-50 national narrative simply doesn’t hold up in this case. The No Labels poll revealed:
1. A supermajority (72%) of voters is for the bipartisan infrastructure plan and 76% don’t want its passage linked in any way to the separate social spending plan.
2. A majority (57%) of voters do not want Washington spending a total of $4.7 trillion on infrastructure, climate change, and social welfare programs and a supermajority is concerned this level of spending could hurt them directly in the form of runaway inflation, higher taxes down the line, lower economic growth or negative impacts on their family’s finances.
3. A majority (61%) say a separate social spending bill should be passed only if it has two-party support.
These poll findings blow up the convenient narratives being pushed by leaders in both parties.
Democratic party leaders are telling their members that voters will reward them for signing on for $4+ trillion in new spending and that they don’t care if it’s passed on a party-line basis.
Some Republican leaders are telling their members voters will reward them for obstructing it all.
But 12,673 voters in 33 congressional districts are saying something very different. They are saying they DO want the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill passed. They are saying they ARE open to more social spending, BUT they want it done the right way, with two-party support and they aren’t comfortable with the spending levels many Democrats are pushing.
That’s what the voters are saying.
Will Washington finally listen?
Ryan Clancy is the chief strategist for No Labels and Amy Leveton is an award-winning pollster with over two decades of marketing and communications experience. You can access the full results and methodology of No Labels’ survey of 33 House districts here.
No Labels partnered with HarrisX, the most accurate pollster of the 2020 election cycle, to conduct this survey. HarrisX fielded the survey online and by phone within the United States from July 16-21 among 12,403 registered voters in 33 congressional districts within the US. Results were weighted for age, gender, party, race, education, and income to align them with their actual proportions in the population for each district. The margin of error for each district is between 4-6 percent.